My COVID Odyssey Time Capsule is now in a new site!

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COVID Odyssey: Autumn Addendum Post #971~ COVID Odyssey Time Capsule Addendum

COVID Odyssey Addendum

Summer has ceased Autumn’s awesome
My thoughts come least my mind’s caught numb
I feel like an April fool
I have sealed my time capsule
Before adding my addendum

Alan Grace
26 March 2022

The COVID Odyssey website has become an open Time Capsule:
Alan Grace: COVID Odyssey Time Capsule for – Warning: Most Links within posts will go to the original site:

A version of this post can be found here:
COVID Odyssey: Autumn Addendum Post #971~ COVID Odyssey Time Capsule Addendum – COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace’s vir[tu]al journey (

This addendum covers:

  • NZ now has around 600,000 cases of COVID-19
  • Ro can be estimated by using r^1.2 (instead of r) in our formula where r is a daily increase factor in case numbers

This PDF may be easier to read and contains a wider range of values:

The actual value for Ro will lie between our values calculated for Re and Ro.

We could also estimate Ro using r^1.1, the geometric mean of r and r^1.2. We obtain:

In the first 2020 Outbreak New Zealand, r =1.4 and hence r^2 = 1.96. This is close to 2 so we thought that when r = 1.4, for Ro, r was close to SQRT(2). At a minimum this could be the case. Let z = ln( SQRT(2) ) / ln(1.4) and use r^z in our formula where z = 1.030021359. This gives the result we require when r = 1.4. We obtain (see image below):

(the last two columns show the increase in r when estimating Ro)
(includes Ro/Re)


This provides low estimates for Ro, close to Re as required when r = 1.4. We adopt these estimates.


Both Re and Ro are estimated using this formula:


where n = 10 Days.

For our upper estimate in the range for Ro, substitute r^1.2 for r in the formula.

Please see the WELCOME menu for background and definitions at:
COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace’s vir[tu]al journey – COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace’s vir[tu]al journey investigating/experiencing COVID-19 life (

Read more

COVID-19: read my posts here!

My COVID-19 posts can be found in the COVID-19 menu or here:
(Alan’s Ark contains old posts from the above site)

Data for my posts can be found at:

I share my posts at:


This blog contains old posts from Alan Grace’s main blog:
(see my COVID-19 posts, including OMICRON, in the above link or Click on the COVID-19 menu)

For a list of my COVID-19 posts see the pingbacks here:
Shared Posts (Pingbacks) – Share Your Best Posts (


Sadly some reblogged posts on this site have not imported fully into Altervista.
You will need to search for the original post on my main blog if you see this happen.

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Alan Grace

#701. Sad anniversary: One year since WordPress announced loss of new Daily Prompts

Sad decision

Reputation built
Now quicksand and silt
How users betrayed
‘D’ fail grade displayed
Guilty to the hilt

Alan Grace
25 May 2018

Daily prompt: Guilty

One year ago today, WordPress announced it was giving one week’s notice that the Daily Post  was closing down- that there would be no new daily prompts etc 🙁 Why kill it?

To the Daily Post Community: Thank You!

Just how much effort does it take to choose a word at random from a dictionary?

Or use a random word generator. e.g.

My idea was to perhaps just start repeating words from a couple of years ago or last year.

Do you need resources for your posts? Daily prompts automatically updated each day (or type in your own keyword)


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