Message in a bottle~ Come to space with me to Europa~ Deadline may be today!
Poems
My main site will become private this morning (Monday 23 October)- links from posts here may not work!
A broken heart
Please do not injure me
We had a synergy
You broke my heart
Tore it apart
Please treat me gingerly
Alan Grace
10 November 2017
My main site:
https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/
will probably become a private site this morning.
This will not have any effect for existing members of my main site.
This means that links to my main site from this site will not work unless you are a member of my main site.
I recommend you join my main site now if you are not already a member.
Email me if you would like to become a member of my main site.
You are all welcome to become members of my main site.
Daily prompt:Gingerly
COVID Odyssey: Autumn Addendum Post #971~ COVID Odyssey Time Capsule Addendum
COVID Odyssey Addendum
Summer has ceased Autumn’s awesome
My thoughts come least my mind’s caught numb
I feel like an April fool
I have sealed my time capsule
Before adding my addendum
Alan Grace
26 March 2022
The COVID Odyssey website has become an open Time Capsule:
Alan Grace: COVID Odyssey Time Capsule for aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com – Warning: Most Links within posts will go to the original site: aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com
A version of this post can be found here:
COVID Odyssey: Autumn Addendum Post #971~ COVID Odyssey Time Capsule Addendum – COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace’s vir[tu]al journey (wordpress.com)
This addendum covers:
- NZ now has around 600,000 cases of COVID-19
- Ro can be estimated by using r^1.2 (instead of r) in our formula where r is a daily increase factor in case numbers
This PDF may be easier to read and contains a wider range of values:
CasesReRoC5
The actual value for Ro will lie between our values calculated for Re and Ro.
We could also estimate Ro using r^1.1, the geometric mean of r and r^1.2. We obtain:
CasesReRoD
In the first 2020 Outbreak New Zealand, r =1.4 and hence r^2 = 1.96. This is close to 2 so we thought that when r = 1.4, for Ro, r was close to SQRT(2). At a minimum this could be the case. Let z = ln( SQRT(2) ) / ln(1.4) and use r^z in our formula where z = 1.030021359. This gives the result we require when r = 1.4. We obtain (see image below):
CasesReRoE
CasesReRoE2
(the last two columns show the increase in r when estimating Ro)
CasesReRoE3
(includes Ro/Re)
This provides low estimates for Ro, close to Re as required when r = 1.4. We adopt these estimates.
Both Re and Ro are estimated using this formula:
where n = 10 Days.
For our upper estimate in the range for Ro, substitute r^1.2 for r in the formula.
Please see the WELCOME menu for background and definitions at:
COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace’s vir[tu]al journey – COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace’s vir[tu]al journey investigating/experiencing COVID-19 life (wordpress.com)